Hopper looked at February to April travel from Chicago to popular warm spring break destinations (Figure 1), to identify a list of travel tips for the price conscious. We used regression modeling on over 4.8 million shops from Chicago (ORD, MDW) to these destinations to analyze how different factors interacted to affect prices.
Figure 1: Warm weather US and Caribbean destinations from Chicago
Our data shows that prices are about 34% higher for flying from Chicago to these destinations during the most popular spring break weeks. However, if you want to save money, when you book your ticket and when you travel can matter a lot.
To get the best price for your spring break trip make sure you:
Surprisingly including a Saturday night stay, which often has a large impact on price, did not offer additional savings to these destinations when flying out of Chicago. Booking late in the 15-30 day range, will increase the cost of your ticket the most, but only by 10%.
If you have to travel during the week of March 16, 23rd, or April 6th the subset of destinations shown below tend to offer the best deal for your money (10 percentile prices shown), though prices will vary from specific origins.
To find the best deal use Hopper’s interactive flight price map, which will show you prices to destinations around the world for an origin that you select. An example is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Hopper interactive price and popularity map for travel from ORD airport in Chicago
You can also find details for individual origin-destination markets, including popularity and deal prices for specific dates, here.
The data presented in this analysis comes from Hopper’s combined feed of Global Distribution System (GDS) data sources which includes about 10 million queries and 1 billion trips per day. Demand is represented as the number of queries not actual ticket purchases, and is calibrated across all GDS sources for each market. Lowest fare, or deal fare, is represented by the 10th percentile prices. For example if the 10th percentile price is $800 dollars it means that only 10% of trips are priced at or below this price.