2024 Holiday Travel Outlook

Summary

• Airfare for Thanksgiving trips is currently averaging $298 per round-trip ticket, up 10% from this time last year and 3% from pre-pandemic. Though prices are higher than historic levels today, prices are expected to fall by about $40 on average until they reach their lowest point in early October. In October, the sweet spot for booking holiday airfare, prices are likely to be in line with 2023 levels, and below 2019 levels. 

• Airfare for Christmas trips is currently averaging $406 per round-trip ticket, up 4% from this time last year and 13% from pre-pandemic. Though prices are currently higher than historic levels today, prices are expected to fall by about $80 until they reach their lowest point in October. In October, the sweet spot for booking holiday airfare, prices are likely to be in line with 2023 levels.

How to save this holiday season?

1. Start planning now:  Download the Hopper app and begin monitoring prices now. Using the watch feature, plug in your holiday destination and we’ll keep you notified of price changes and the best time to buy. Expect to book by the second week of October! 

2. Be flexible on travel dates: Save more than $100 off peak airfare by flying on less popular dates before and after each holiday week. 

3. Book airfare by Monday, October 14th: Airfare will drop from now until the end of September, then remain low and volatile in October before rising in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving and Christmas. Over the next few weeks while prices are volatile, travelers who are proactively monitoring prices could get notified of great, time-sensitive deals.

Holiday Travel: Consumer Outlook

As the holiday travel season approaches quickly, travelers have affordability top of mind. Nearly 75% of Hopper customers say that as they book travel this year, they plan to spend the same or more than what they spent on the holidays last year. Despite the stickiness of travel budgets this year, 81% of Hopper users say they are concerned about being able to afford holiday travel. 

The holiday season is an important time of the year for millions of Americans, who often see holiday travel as essential to see friends, family and celebrate the holiday season. As Americans have faced economic headwinds the past few years, travel expenditure has been largely protected from cutbacks as travelers, especially GenZ and Millennial travelers, tend to cut back in other areas to protect their travel expenditure. This year, travelers are cutting back on other expenses and taking advantage of deals and discounts to stretch their holiday budgets further. 

One of the most effective ways for travelers to reduce the cost of holiday travel is to book at the right time, when prices are low and there is a large range of unbooked flights to choose from. Unfortunately, travelers continue to book trips significantly closer to their departure dates than ever before. Take Christmas for example- last year most travelers booked Christmas flights just 6 weeks before the holiday, booking in the second week of November. Travelers were booking, on average, booking trips 2 weeks closer to Christmas than in 2019. In this report we break down the best time to book holiday travel to find the best balance of affordable prices, and inventory from the airlines.

Holiday Airfare

Thanksgiving Airfare & When to Fly

Airfare for Thanksgiving trips is currently averaging $298 per round-trip ticket, up 10% from this time last year and 3% from pre-pandemic. Though prices are higher than historic levels today, prices are expected to fall by about $40 on average until they reach their lowest point in early October. In October, the sweet spot for booking holiday airfare, prices are likely to be in line with 2023 levels, and below 2019 levels. 

Airfare to international destinations in Mexico and Central America, popular for shorter holiday trips, is down compared to last year, with prices averaging $464 per round-trip ticket. Airfare to Europe, the top destination for international travelers from the US, is down 7% compared to this time last year. 

When to Fly?

Domestic

Travelers looking to get the best prices for domestic Thanksgiving trips should plan to be flexible on their travel dates. Departing the week before Thanksgiving or on the Monday ahead of the holiday will save travelers the most. Savvy travelers will save 23% or about $60 per ticket by departing on the Thursday before Thanksgiving (11/21) or the Monday of Thanksgiving week (11/25) instead of taking a weekend flight. 

Following a weekend of turkey, football and shopping, airports will be packed on the Sunday after Thanksgiving. This is the most popular day to return for Thanksgiving travelers, and also the most expensive! Travelers returning on Sunday will pay a 45% premium, or $137 per ticket more than those travelers who return the following day, Monday. Skip the Sunday return and fly home on Black Friday, or Monday, December 2nd to pack on the savings.

International 

Travelers looking to get the best prices for international Thanksgiving trips should plan to leave departure closer to the holiday. On average travelers will save 20%, or $183 per ticket starting an international trip the week of Thanksgiving instead of the week or weekend before. For travelers grabbing their passports this Thanksgiving, we’ve rounded up the cheapest day to depart on your trip and how much you can save by shifting to these dates. Return the week following Thanksgiving for the best all in airfare, as December 1st will be the busiest and most expensive day to return. 

Christmas Airfare & When to Fly

Airfare for Christmas trips is currently averaging $406 per ticket, up 4% from this time last year and 13% from pre-pandemic. Though prices are currently higher than historic levels today, prices are expected to fall by about $80 until they reach their lowest point in October. In October, the sweet spot for booking holiday airfare, prices are likely to be in line with 2023 levels.

When to Fly

Domestic

Travelers looking to get the best prices for domestic Christmas trips should plan to be flexible on their travel dates. Departing the week before Christmas or on Christmas Eve or Day will save travelers the most. Savvy travelers will save 26% or about $100 per ticket by departing on Christmas Eve instead of taking a flight the weekend before the holiday. 

The week following Christmas is an expensive week for domestic travel, as Americans head home from Christmas trips and head out on New Year’s trips. For travelers headed home from the holiday, New Year’s Eve departures will be the most cost effective, saving travelers about $68 per ticket on average. 

International

Travelers looking to get the best prices for international Christmas trips should plan to depart on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day to get the lowest prices. On average, travelers can save around 30% on round-trip international airfare by departing on the holidays themselves, which are generally low demand days for travel. 

We’ve rounded up the cheapest day to depart on your trip and how much you can save by shifting to these dates. Return dates on New Year’s Eve or from January 2nd on will be the best deals for most travelers headed home from a holiday break. 

When to Buy?

While nearly 90% of Hopper users who are traveling for the holiday season are planning to fly, only 12% have booked their flights as of the first week of September! It’s critical to book holiday flights at the right time to ensure you’re not overpaying for your trip, especially in a time where many Americans are tightening their belts. 

Customers who booked holiday travel with Hopper last year have set flight watches and are planning to book in the next few weeks, in line with our guidance for the holiday season. In order to get the best prices for holiday travel, plan to book Thanksgiving and Christmas flights by October 14th. 

Prices for Thanksgiving trips have dropped by more than $80 per ticket since earlier this summer and are set to continue falling until the sweet spot in early October. Prices will be the lowest through the first two weeks of October, before rising rapidly as the holiday approaches. Prices will spike by 5% - 10% each day, or by as much as $30 per day, in the final two weeks before Thanksgiving as flights sell out and travelers scramble to book last minute trips. 

Prices for Christmas remain high as the holiday is still about four months away. Prices will begin to drop in the next few weeks before reaching their lowest point between mid October and early November. Prices will rise quickly in November and accelerate even more in December, rising more than 32% in the last 3-4 weeks before the holiday. Travelers should plan to book in mid October to ensure low prices, and sufficient available seats on the routes they’re shopping. Holiday flights often sell out on peak dates if you book too late! 

Rental Car Prices 

With more than one in five holiday travelers planning to drive for one or both holidays this year, rental car and gas prices will be top of mind! Today, rental prices for Thanksgiving are averaging $49 per day, with most travelers looking at 5 day rentals. For Christmas, rentals are averaging $52 per day and travelers are looking at 6 day rentals, likely making a week out of the holidays. 

Gas prices today are down more than $0.50 per gallon, a significant improvement compared to September of last year. Even so, some travelers are likely to be looking for electric vehicles as they browse rentals, to cut down on rental car costs. 

Usually booking at the last minute will get travelers the best deal on car rentals. However, with lower supply of rental vehicles in the market and a busy holiday season ahead, waiting until the last minute could mean there are no vehicles left to book! Plan to book rental cars at the same time as holiday flights to ensure you have a car waiting for you at pick up. 

Top 2024 Holiday Destinations

Most Popular Destinations for Thanksgiving 2024

Most Popular Destinations for Christmas 2024

How to Prepare for Travel Disruptions this holiday season?

Savvy travelers know that busy travel periods can mean an increase in travel disruptions; both delays and cancellations. Travel disruptions are top of mind for those looking ahead to holiday trips, especially among those who traveled during the holiday season last year. 87% of Hopper customers who traveled for the holidays last year say they are concerned about the impact of disruptions on their travel plans this year. 

Though travelers can’t predict when a travel disruption will impact their travel, they can plan ahead to minimize the potential impact, both travel related and financial, of unexpected disruptions. 

How to prepare before you book holiday trips: 

• Add trip protection: If you’re flying this holiday season, we recommend adding trip protection like Disruption Assistance offered on Hopper and other travel providers. If your flight is delayed, canceled or you miss a connection, you can immediately rebook on any flight, regardless of carrier. 

• Book the first flight of the day: In general, flights departing after 9am are 2X more likely to be delayed than departures scheduled between 5-8am. To avoid travel disruption, fly as early in the morning as possible.

• Fly direct: You will usually pay a premium to fly direct, rather than with stops, but it may be worth the cost for travelers concerned about getting to their destination on time. Missed connections following flight delays or cancellations can make getting to your destination on time challenging during busy travel periods marred by bad weather or other disruptions. 

• Build in a buffer day: Travel a day early to your holiday celebrations if possible, that way if you’re impacted by a delay or cancellation you will have 24 hours to reschedule your travel and get onto your final destination. 

• Book with flexibility: With recent disruptions at the airport, travelers may want to consider adding extra flexibility to their travel plans in the future in case they want to make last minute changes. Travelers should take advantage of plans like Cancel for Any Reason or Change for Any Reason available on the Hopper app. With these plans, Hopper pays the difference to the airline if you make changes or cancel your trip all together - with no additional cost to the traveler.

How to prepare before you head to the airport: 

• Sign up for alerts & check flight status before you go to the airport. You’ll want to know about delays and cancellations as early as possible. On most U.S. carriers, passengers can sign up for text, email, and/or in-app notifications about any changes to their itinerary including delay and cancellations. 

• Know what options you have available: Know what other flights are headed to your destination the same day as your trip in case you’re disrupted and need to get on another flight. Be sure to check airline policies, many carriers will waive change fees if there is a weather advisory or give compensation/travel credit if your flight is canceled within a few hours of departure.

What to do if you are impacted by travel disruptions: 

• Multi-task. As soon as you learn of a disruption, hop in line to speak with a customer service agent in your terminal. At the same time, try to change your flight yourself in the airline’s app and/or call the airline’s customer service call center. Oftentimes you can reach an agent via phone before an agent at the airport can get to you. Sometimes you can even reebok yourself on the airlines own app!

• Consider alternate airports. If you’re flying out of a major city with multiple airports, check out flights still scheduled to depart that may get you onto your destination more quickly. If you’re stranded in cities like New York, Chicago, and Dallas, your ticket home may be just a train or Uber ride away. 

• Pack your patience. It’s impossible to predict travel disruptions but we should expect there will be more of them during the busiest travel weeks of the year. With more passengers departing from airports over these holiday weeks than usual, everything from backups on the tarmac to bad weather can impact your travel plans. Pack your patience and plan ahead to make sure you’re prepared for anything unexpected. 

Methodology

Average airfares are calculated as a demand weighted average of the 10th percentile of prices available to book during the period of searches utilized for the report. This report looks at prices based on the previous 6 months of searches for holiday dates. Prices for Thanksgiving travel dates are defined as departures beginning November 24th, 2024 and ending on Thanksgiving Day, unless noted otherwise. Year over year comparisons are adjusted for the movement of Thanksgiving Day and look at the period from Sunday before Thanksgiving through Thanksgiving Day. Prices for Christmas travel dates are defined as departures beginning December 21st, 2024 and ending on Christmas Day, unless noted otherwise. Year over year comparisons are made for the same date range. Average hotel rates and average rental rates are calculated as demand weighted averages of rates available to book in the two weeks ending September 9th, 2024. Recommendations on the best time to buy airfare are based on historical price curves in advance of the holiday itself. For trip level recommendations on when to purchase a flight to get the best price, set up a price watch in the Hopper App. Hopper supplemented this report with surveys of Hopper users who were recently active in the app, survey results have a N > 580.