Canada Reopening Report

Searches from the U.S. to Canada spiked 38% between July 19th and 21st on news that Canada would allow entry to fully vaccinated American citizens and permanent residents for non-essential travel.

Adit Damodaran - Jul. 27, 2021

Summary:

Searches

  • U.S. to Canada: This has been the biggest spike in search volumes from the U.S. to Canada that we’ve seen all year, and the largest one since Phase 1 eased quarantine travel restrictions for fully vaccinated travelers on June 21st (which resulted in a 31% spike in daily flight search volume).

  • Domestic Canada: Canada’s domestic air travel market has experienced a strong rebound in search demand beginning in late May. The weekly average for flight searches is up 91% for domestic flights in Canada since May 23rd. 

  • Canada to U.S. routes have yet to experience the same level of recovery but are definitely rising in demand, with weekly searches being up 48% over that same period, which is comparable to the U.S. to Canada search demand improvements we’ve tracked.

  • Canada to other International Destinations: Searches for other international destinations from Canada (other than the U.S) are up just 22% since May 23rd, and have in fact trended down from late June levels. This suggests that international travel from Canada to other countries besides the U.S. is slower-going, and may take longer to recover. 

Bookings

  • U.S. to Canada: Round-trip bookings on Hopper from the U.S. to Canada are up 190% MoM since June 16th. Accounting for both one-way and round-trip flights, U.S. to Canada bookings are up 168%. Bookings on July 19th, following the announcement that Canada would allow non-essential travel for vaccinated U.S. travelers beginning August 9th, jumped 132%, more than doubling the weekly average. This represented the biggest single-day spike in bookings since the beginning of the pandemic.

  • Domestic Canada: bookings on Hopper were up 31% MoM in May and 128% MoM in June. Bookings in July are currently on track to another 33% MoM growth over June.

  • Canada to the US: In May, bookings were up 71% MoM, which June incredibly beat by another 112% MoM increase. Bookings in July are on pace to increase a whopping 160% MoM from June. 

  • Canada to other International Destinations: Bookings from Canada to other international destinations were up 26% MoM in May, and then up another 102% MoM in June. Bookings in July are on pace to do a 61% increase MoM from June. 

Airfare

  • U.S. to Canada: We estimate a good deal on round-trip airfare from the U.S. to Canada is currently $450, or C$566. Airfare has increased a massive 25% since just June 15th, shortly before the Phase 1 Travel Restriction Easing was announced (ending quarantine and negative testing requirements for fully vaccinated travelers permitted to enter Canada, which at the time did not include U.S. citizens). Since the announcement on July 19th allowing fully U.S. travelers into Canada, round-trip airfare has followed demand and risen 6%. Prior to these announcements, round-trip airfare trended steadily in the $375 to $400 (C$472 to C$503) range. 

  • We expect airfare to continue to rise with steadily increasing travel demand to Canada, although concerns about the effect of variant strains or newly imposed travel restrictions may suppress demand and airfare. Airfare may also level off due to seasonality in the coming months, since summer is usually the peak travel season between the U.S. and Canada.

  • Domestic Canada: Domestic flight airfare is up 29% since mid-June, rising from $333 to $431 for a round-trip (C$419 to C$542).

  • Canada to U.S.: Airfare from Canada to the U.S. is also up 24% ($354 to $438, or C$445 to C$551).

  • Canada to Other International Destinations: Airfare from Canada to other international destinations remains high amid relatively more moderate search demand at $985 for a round-trip on average, up 8% from $915 around the Phase 1 Easing in June (C$1,150 to C$1238). 


Relevant Dates:

Searches:

Daily Searches for Round-Trip Flights From U.S. to Canada 🇺🇸 

Searches spiked 38% between July 19th-21st on news that Canada would allow entry to fully vaccinated American citizens and permanent residents for non-essential travel. This has been the biggest spike in search volumes from the U.S. to Canada that we’ve seen all year, and the largest one since Phase 1 eased quarantine travel restrictions for fully vaccinated travellers on June 21st (which resulted in a 31% spike in daily flight search volume). 

Searches for Round-Trip Flights From U.S. to Canada

Daily Searches for Round-Trip Flights From 🇨🇦 

The biggest spike in the chart below is the dark blue line, which shows domestic Canadian flight searches around July 1st (Canada Day). Canada’s domestic air travel market has experienced a strong rebound in search demand beginning in late May. The weekly average for flight searches is up 91% for domestic flights in Canada since May 23rd. Canada to U.S. routes have yet to experience the same level of recovery but are definitely rising in demand, with weekly searches being up 48% over that same period, which is comparable to the U.S. to Canada search demand improvements we’ve tracked. Searches for other international destinations from Canada (other than the U.S) are up just 22% since May 23rd, and have in fact trended down from late June levels. This suggests that international travel from Canada to other countries besides the U.S. is slower-going, and may take longer to recover. 

Searches for Round-Trip Flights From Canada

Bookings

Bookings from the U.S. to Canada 🇺🇸 

Round-trip bookings on Hopper from the U.S. to Canada are up 190% MoM since June 16th. Accounting for both one-way and round-trip flights, U.S. to Canada bookings are up 168%. Bookings on June 19th, following the announcement that Canada would allow non-essential travel for vaccinated U.S. travelers beginning August 9th, jumped 132%, more than doubling the weekly average. This represented the biggest single-day spike in bookings since the beginning of the pandemic. 

Bookings from Canada 🇨🇦 

Domestic: Bookings for domestic flights in Canada have been on a strong recovery since early May 2021. Domestic Canada bookings on Hopper were up 31% MoM in May and 128% MoM in June. Bookings in July are currently on track to another 33% MoM growth over June. 

Canada to the US: Bookings for flights from Canada to the U.S. are also on a rapid recovery trajectory. In May, bookings were up 71% MoM, which June incredibly beat by another 112% MoM increase. Bookings in July are on pace to increase a whopping 160% MoM from June. 

Canada to other International Destinations: The recovery in booking volumes from Canada to other international destinations (aside from the U.S.) is also progressing quickly. Bookings from Canada to other international destinations were up 26% MoM in May, and then up another 102% MoM in June. Bookings in July are on pace to do a 61% increase MoM from June. 

Last Week’s Most Booked Destinations from the U.S. to Canada 🇺🇸 

The most booked Canadian cities on Hopper from the U.S. were Toronto (#1), Vancouver (#2), and Calgary (#3).

Last Week’s Most Booked Destinations from Canada 🇨🇦 

The top three destinations among domestic Canadian bookings were Vancouver (#1), Toronto (#2), and Calgary (#3). Among bookings from Canada to the US, the most popular destinations were New York City, NY (#1), Los Angeles, CA (#2), and Fort Lauderdale, FL (#3).  Among bookings from Canada to other international regions, the most popular destinations were Paris, France (#1), Cancun, Mexico (#2), and London, UK (#3).  

Airfare

All Charts Shown in $ (USD)

Airfare from the U.S. to Canada 🇺🇸 

We estimate a good deal on round-trip airfare from the U.S. to Canada is currently $450, or C$566. Airfare has increased a massive 25% since just June 15th, shortly before the Phase 1 Travel Restriction Easing was announced (ending quarantine and negative testing requirements for fully vaccinated travellers permitted to enter Canada, which at the time did not include U.S. citizens). Since the announcement on July 19th allowing fully U.S. travellers into Canada, round-trip airfare has followed demand and risen 6%. Prior to these announcements, round-trip airfare trended steadily in the $375 to $400 (C$472 to C$503) range. We expect airfare to continue to rise with steadily increasing travel demand to Canada, although concerns about the effect of variant strains or newly imposed travel restrictions may suppress demand and airfare. Airfare may also level off due to seasonality in the coming months, since summer is usually the peak travel season between the U.S. and Canada. 

U.S. to Canada Airfare

Airfare from Canada 🇨🇦 

When travel restrictions were imposed on February 12th, domestic airfare in Canada dropped significantly, falling 45% to historical lows at just $281 (C$355) for a round-trip. Since the recent reopening announcements, airfare for both domestic flights and Canada to U.S. flights has steadily increased. Domestic flight airfare is up 29% since mid-June, rising from $333 to $431 for a round-trip (C$419 to C$542). Airfare from Canada to the U.S. is also up 24% ($354 to $438, or C$445 to C$551). Airfare from Canada to other international destinations remains high amid relatively more moderate search demand at $985 for a round-trip on average, up 8% from $915 around the Phase 1 Easing in June (C$1,150 to C$1238). 

Canada Airfare

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